A new report estimates that heat pumps could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 500 million tonnes by 2030 – equivalent to the annual output of all cars in Europe today.

Heat pumps are an emerging technology that can provide a new, sustainable alternative to conventional home heating systems. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just published its latest report on these devices, which have potential to significantly reduce demand for natural gas.

Sales of heat pumps will dramatically increase in the near future, as the global energy crisis accelerates their adoption, the IEA predicts. If governments maintain their energy and climate commitments, these systems will account for nearly half of reductions in fossil fuel use for heating in buildings by 2030.

The heat pump market has already seen faster growth in recent years, due to falling costs and strong incentives. Global sales rose by nearly 15% in 2021 – double the average of the past decade – and sales in 2022 are set to hit another record level. Growth has been particularly strong in the European Union (EU) where some countries doubled their sales in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. Looking ahead, the annual sales of heat pumps could more than triple throughout the EU by the end of this decade. This would mean a reduction in natural gas volumes of 7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2025 and more than 21 bcm by 2030.

"Heat pumps are an indispensable part of any plan to cut emissions and natural gas use, and an urgent priority in the European Union today," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "The technology is tried and tested, even in the coldest of climates. Policy makers should be putting their weight behind this technology that is witnessing unprecedented momentum at the moment. Heat pumps will be central to efforts to ensure everyone can heat their homes this winter and next, to protect vulnerable households and businesses from high prices, and to meet climate objectives."

Heat pumps typically cost less over their lifetimes than fossil fuel boilers, thanks to their higher efficiency. At today's energy prices, annual energy bill savings for households that switch to heat pumps can range from US$300 in the United States to as much as US$900 in Europe.

Government support is needed, however, to help consumers overcome heat pumps' higher upfront costs relative to alternatives. The costs of purchasing and installing a heat pump can be up to four times as much as those for a gas boiler. Financial incentives for heat pumps are now available in 30 countries.

In the IEA's most optimistic scenario – in which all governments achieve their energy and climate pledges in full – heat pumps become the main way of decarbonising space and water heating worldwide. The agency estimates that heat pumps have the potential to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 500 million tonnes in 2030 – equal to the annual CO2 emissions of all cars in Europe today. Leading manufacturers report promising signs of momentum and policy support and have announced plans to invest more than US$4 billion in expanding heat pump production and related efforts, mostly in Europe.

Opportunities also exist for heat pumps to provide low-temperature heat in industrial sectors, especially in the paper, food, and chemicals industries. In Europe alone, 15 gigawatts of heat pumps could be installed across 3,000 facilities in these three sectors, which have been hit hard by recent rises in natural gas prices.

"All the pieces are in place for the heat pump market to take off, reminiscent of the trajectory we have seen in other key climate technologies like solar PV and electric vehicles," said Birol. "Heat pumps address many of policy makers' most pressing concerns on energy affordability, supply security and the climate crisis. Policy measures are in place today, but they need to be reinforced urgently to allow heat pumps fulfil their significant economic and environmental potential."

"COP27 stressed the urgent need for faster climate action, and today's IEA report emphasises that heat pumps are the main building block for decarbonised, flexible and reliable heating," said Thomas Nowak, Secretary General of the European Heat Pump Association. "We hope the message is heard by countries around the world and is followed by rapid action on the ground."

By FutureTimeLines