Worsening crisis in Yemen

At the turn of the 21st century, Yemen was already the poorest and least developed nation in the Arab world. 45% of its citizens were living below the poverty line, unemployment was at 35% and its literacy rate was just 58%. It had dwindling natural resources and a ballooning population. Its economy was heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, which accounted for almost 75% of government revenues and 90% of foreign exchange earnings.

Yemen reached peak oil production in 2003 and witnessed a steady decline thereafter. In 2011, a popular uprising was triggered due to worsening economic conditions, rising unemployment and government corruption. This was sparked by simultaneous protests in other Middle Eastern countries.

Over the next decade, the situation continued to deteriorate. Transitioning to a post-carbon economy was proving to be a massive challenge. Neighbouring Saudi Arabia attempted to stabilise the political and economic situation by donating oil and other resources. However, it could only provide this support for so long, as Saudi Arabia itself was facing problems. Yemen's push into the gas sector had also failed to revive its economy significantly.

Alongside this, a new and even greater threat was emerging. Yemen's groundwater levels had fallen sharply in recent decades. Around the capital, Sana'a, borehole drilling was now reaching down to water that fell more than 8,000 years ago, with groundwater levels decreasing by 4-6 metres a year. Additional wells and water mains were desperately needed to service the region, but these for the most part had been lost among the nation's various other problems. Yemen had been battling Shiite Muslim rebels in the north and a separatist movement in the south, whilst contending with a resurgence of Al Qaeda and the scourge of piracy in the Gulf of Aden.

Between 2017 and 2025, a major crisis begins to unfold,* and Sana'a becomes the first capital city in the world to completely run out of water.* There is widespread looting, rioting and violence, a mass exodus of refugees and a gradual decline in the country's population which continues into the following decade and beyond. Parts of the state collapse into anarchy, with a zone of lawlessness expanding into Saudi Arabia and the Horn of Africa.

The outside world watches, powerless, as this tragedy unfolds. Though assistance is offered by some countries, including military intervention, it cannot prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Yemen now faces a very uncertain future, threatening stability across the region.

2017–2025: Yemen's water shortage is plunging the region into chaos.